ECA Quarterly Business Trends Survey

Results for quarter 3 2008 

The results of the second quarter Business Trends Survey for 2008 are now available.

The data is split into nine key sections: small, medium, large and very large companies and also companies in the areas of North, West, South East, Midlands and East and Greater London – as well as the national picture, below.

Click the relevant link in the left hand column to find specific details on the results for each section.

 National picture: key findings 

The key findings for quarter 3 2008 are set out below.

• In the third quarter of 2008, the balance¹ of companies reporting an increase in turnover rather than a decrease was -6%. In Q2 2008 the figure had been -16%.
• Expectations for the next quarter have now fallen steadily since Q2 2007 and the balance expecting an increase rather than a decrease is now down to -29%.
• The balance expecting a rise rather than a fall in turnover for the next 12 months has fallen steadily since Q4 2008 and is now down to -34%.
• Forty percent of respondents added comments.  By far the greatest concern is with the general downturn in business and in the economy in general.
• The proportion of pessimistic comments is higher even than in Q2 2008 and much higher than in Q4 2007.
• There is, however, another point of view and a few companies are forecasting some growth in particular sectors.

National picture: actual turnover change in last quarter and actual and expected turnover change – balance*.

 ¹ The balance is a sensitive measure of change. For example, although the balance for turnover in last quarter turnover rose from -16% to -6% between Q2 2008 and Q3 2008 there are still 40% of companies in the latest survey who report that their turnover is unchanged while a further 27% report an increase compared to the previous quarter. Gloom is not universal.

*Balance: for each question on the survey, respondents were asked whether values would be more, less or the same as in previous periods. The difference between more or less is referred to as the balance.

For any further information on the topic, please contact Steve Newbold, ECA Head of Marketing, at steve.newbold@eca.co.uk